Description
Bem (2011) created a stir in the scientific community when he published a suite of experiments showing precognition-like experiences under controlled laboratory conditions. Such experiences are common among the general population (Roe, 2019b), but are typically dismissed by the scientific mainstream on the grounds that they are incompatible with the generally accepted model of reality, where consciousness is purely a product of brain activity and has capacities that are severely constrained in space and time. Yet research in parapsychology suggests that under some circumstances, people may be able to transcend those usual constraints so that, for example, their current decisions and behaviour can be shown to be affected by information that lies in the future and has not yet been determined. Bem’s work is particularly interesting in suggesting that this material might be available unconsciously, influencing the choices that people make, allowing them to capitalise on opportunities and avoid dangers, but not giving rise to overt ‘psychic’ experiences.Bem’s experimental findings were surprisingly consistent, and despite some high-profile failures to replicate them, the general pattern from this database is that the effects can be reproduced in the laboratory to the same extent as other, more mundane, psychological effects (Bem, Tressoldi, Rabeyron, & Duggan, 2016; see Roe 2022a, 2022b for general introductions). However, the experiments described by Bem (2011) represent an assortment of designs that seem to reflect practical expediency rather than any overarching theoretical perspective. Similarly, despite some honourable exceptions (e.g., Savva, Roe & Smith, 2005, Vernon, 2017) the majority of replication attempts have consisted of straight reproductions of those original experiments, intended to confirm basic effects rather than test particular hypotheses. This paradigm therefore seems an ideal candidate for more theory-led research that could explore the implications of this work for our understanding of consciousness per se.
One of the most interesting features of a recent meta-analysis of these studies (Bem et al., 2016) was the classification of experiment types in terms of Kahneman’s (2011) dual-mode theory of cognition, which identifies two systems of thinking: ‘fast’ and ‘slow’. System 1 involves fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic, unconscious processes and utilises parallel processing, whereas System 2 is a slow, effortful, logical, calculating, conscious, and linear process. . Bem et al. (2016) found overall that ‘feeling the future’ experiments that involved slow processes (such as memory recall tasks) did not deviate significantly from chance expectation whereas those that involved fast processes (such as priming tasks) were significantly higher and showed a much greater degree of consistency across studies. Such a finding is consistent with Carpenter’s (2012) First Sight Theory (FST).
FST represents a model of consciousness that incorporates psi phenomena as a fundamental feature of its modus operandi. It not only attempts to account for observations concerning conventional processes of memory and perception, but also the patterns of performance observed in research on ESP. It makes a series of explicit, testable hypotheses about who should perform well within the fast-thinking type of experiment and under what circumstances (for more detail, see Roe 2019a, 2019b).
The current project comprises a series of planned experiments that will test these various predictions using one of Bem’s fast-thinking precognition tasks. The focus in experiment 1 is on personality and individual difference variables that might moderate performance on the precognition task. Following collection of this information the protocol includes a bespoke signal detection task to ensure that the primes remain subliminal for all participants prior to completing Bem’s retroactive priming task. In this presentation we will introduce the first experiment and present a preliminary analysis of our findings.
| Period | 10 Nov 2023 |
|---|---|
| Event title | 46th Society for Psychical Research International Conference |
| Event type | Conference |
| Location | Royal Leamington Spa, United KingdomShow on map |
| Degree of Recognition | International |