A Tuned Holt-Winters White-Box Model for COVID-19 Prediction

Seng Hansun; Vincent Charles; Tatiana Gherman; Subanar; Christiana Rini Indrati

doi:10.1504/IJMDM.2021.10034422

A Tuned Holt-Winters White-Box Model for COVID-19 Prediction

Seng Hansun, Vincent Charles^*, Tatiana Gherman, Subanar, Christiana Rini Indrati

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The year 2020 has become memorable the moment the novel COVID-19 spread massively around the world to become a pandemic. In this paper, we analyse and predict the future trend of the COVID-19 cases for the top ten countries with the highest number of confirmed cases to date and the top ten countries with the highest growth percentage within the last month. Since many recent works have proposed that the COVID-19 pattern follows an exponential distribution, we use a tuned approach to the Holt-Winters’ additive method as a white-box model. Based on the analysis, we found that most of the countries are still presenting an increasing trend of confirmed cases in the near future. Apart from vaccine and drug development, measures such as vigilance, strategic governmental actions, public awareness, and social distancing are unarguably continuously needed to handle the spreading of COVID-19 and avoid the next wave of the outbreak.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	241-262
Number of pages	22
Journal	International Journal of Management and Decision Making
Volume	20
Issue number	3
Early online date	5 Apr 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMDM.2021.10034422
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 5 Apr 2021

Keywords

COVID-19
Future Wave
Holt-Winters Additive Method
Prediction
White-Box Model

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "A Tuned Holt-Winters White-Box Model for COVID-19 Prediction",

abstract = "The year 2020 has become memorable the moment the novel COVID-19 spread massively around the world to become a pandemic. In this paper, we analyse and predict the future trend of the COVID-19 cases for the top ten countries with the highest number of confirmed cases to date and the top ten countries with the highest growth percentage within the last month. Since many recent works have proposed that the COVID-19 pattern follows an exponential distribution, we use a tuned approach to the Holt-Winters{\textquoteright} additive method as a white-box model. Based on the analysis, we found that most of the countries are still presenting an increasing trend of confirmed cases in the near future. Apart from vaccine and drug development, measures such as vigilance, strategic governmental actions, public awareness, and social distancing are unarguably continuously needed to handle the spreading of COVID-19 and avoid the next wave of the outbreak.",

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AU - Hansun, Seng

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AU - Gherman, Tatiana

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AU - Rini Indrati, Christiana

PY - 2021/4/5

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A Tuned Holt-Winters White-Box Model for COVID-19 Prediction

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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