Predictive policing in 2025: A scenario

Law enforcement authorities (LEAs) have begun using artificial intelligence and predictive policing applications that are likely to raise ethical, data protection, social, political and economic issues. This paper describes application of a new scenario methodology for identifying issues that emerging technologies are likely to raise in a future six or seven years hence, but that deserve policymakers’ attention now. It often takes policymakers that long to develop a new policy, consult with stakeholders and implement the policy. Thus, policymakers need a structured, but concise framework in order to understand the issues and their various implications. At the same time, they also prefer policies that have stakeholder support. These considerations led the University of Twente in the Netherlands and the UK’s Trilateral Research to develop the scenario that follows. It is structured with several headings that policymakers need to consider in order to move toward a desired future and avoidance of an undesired future.