Testing for forced-choice precognition using a hidden task: two replications

David P Luke, Chris A Roe, Jamie Davison

Research output: Contribution to Book/Report typesConference contribution

Abstract

This paper describes two studies that were intended to replicate and extend the findings of Luke, Delanoy and Sherwood (2008), who were able to demonstrate a precognition effect using a covert task with contingent reward or punishment. Performance in their study was related to measures of belief in luck that could be considered to be related to experience of PMIR ‘in the field’. In Study 1, 25 participants completed the short-form Questionnaire of Beliefs about Luck (QBL: Luke, Delanoy & Sherwood, 2003) and a 10-trial preliminary preferences task that required them to select which of four fractal images they found most pleasant. In fact this was a precognition task and based on performance participants in the contingent condition subsequently either completed a pleasant task, involving rating cartoons for humorousness, or an unpleasant task, monitoring sequences of digits. Participants in the nocontingent condition completed neither. Overall, participants selected significantly more target images then mean chance expectation (t[24] = 2.60, p = .02), but there was no difference between the contingent and nocontingent conditions (t[23] = .73, p = .47). Performance was positively correlated with the Chance and Providence subscales of the QBL (r = .48, p = .02, and r =.39, p = .05 respectively) In Study 2, we added measures of openness to experience and creativity that we hypothesized to be related to PMIR performance as correlates of latent inhibition (LI) and lability respectively. 32 participants completed Goldberg’s (1999) measure of Openness to Experience, Holt’s (2002) Creative Cognition Inventory and Luke, et al.’s (2003) long-form QBL. All then completed the contingent version of the covert precognition task used in Study 1. Overall, participants again selected significantly more target images then mean chance expectation (t[31] = 2.01, p = .03). We did not replicate the correlations between performance and the Chance and Providence subscales of the QBL, nor with creativity measures, but there was a significant positive correlation with openness to experience, as predicted (r = .46, p = .01). Suggestions are given for further research utilizing this task, particularly in testing the assumption that the psi element need be covert.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention & The Incorporated Society for Psychical Research 32nd Annual Conference
EditorsSimon Sherwood
Place of PublicationWinchester
PublisherParapsychological Association
Pages123-135
Number of pages13
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2012
EventThe Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention and Incorporated Society of Psychical Research 32nd Annual Convention - University of Winchester, Winchester, United Kingdom
Duration: 13 Aug 200817 Aug 2008

Conference

ConferenceThe Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention and Incorporated Society of Psychical Research 32nd Annual Convention
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityWinchester
Period13/08/0817/08/08

Fingerprint

Creativity
Cartoons
Fractals
Punishment
Reward
Cognition
Equipment and Supplies
Research
Surveys and Questionnaires
Inhibition (Psychology)

Keywords

  • Parapsychology
  • Psychology
  • Precognition

Cite this

Luke, D. P., Roe, C. A., & Davison, J. (2012). Testing for forced-choice precognition using a hidden task: two replications. In S. Sherwood (Ed.), Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention & The Incorporated Society for Psychical Research 32nd Annual Conference (pp. 123-135). Winchester: Parapsychological Association.
Luke, David P ; Roe, Chris A ; Davison, Jamie. / Testing for forced-choice precognition using a hidden task: two replications. Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention & The Incorporated Society for Psychical Research 32nd Annual Conference. editor / Simon Sherwood. Winchester : Parapsychological Association, 2012. pp. 123-135
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Luke, DP, Roe, CA & Davison, J 2012, Testing for forced-choice precognition using a hidden task: two replications. in S Sherwood (ed.), Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention & The Incorporated Society for Psychical Research 32nd Annual Conference. Parapsychological Association, Winchester, pp. 123-135, The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention and Incorporated Society of Psychical Research 32nd Annual Convention, Winchester, United Kingdom, 13/08/08.

Testing for forced-choice precognition using a hidden task: two replications. / Luke, David P; Roe, Chris A; Davison, Jamie.

Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention & The Incorporated Society for Psychical Research 32nd Annual Conference. ed. / Simon Sherwood. Winchester : Parapsychological Association, 2012. p. 123-135.

Research output: Contribution to Book/Report typesConference contribution

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T1 - Testing for forced-choice precognition using a hidden task: two replications

AU - Luke, David P

AU - Roe, Chris A

AU - Davison, Jamie

PY - 2012/11/1

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N2 - This paper describes two studies that were intended to replicate and extend the findings of Luke, Delanoy and Sherwood (2008), who were able to demonstrate a precognition effect using a covert task with contingent reward or punishment. Performance in their study was related to measures of belief in luck that could be considered to be related to experience of PMIR ‘in the field’. In Study 1, 25 participants completed the short-form Questionnaire of Beliefs about Luck (QBL: Luke, Delanoy & Sherwood, 2003) and a 10-trial preliminary preferences task that required them to select which of four fractal images they found most pleasant. In fact this was a precognition task and based on performance participants in the contingent condition subsequently either completed a pleasant task, involving rating cartoons for humorousness, or an unpleasant task, monitoring sequences of digits. Participants in the nocontingent condition completed neither. Overall, participants selected significantly more target images then mean chance expectation (t[24] = 2.60, p = .02), but there was no difference between the contingent and nocontingent conditions (t[23] = .73, p = .47). Performance was positively correlated with the Chance and Providence subscales of the QBL (r = .48, p = .02, and r =.39, p = .05 respectively) In Study 2, we added measures of openness to experience and creativity that we hypothesized to be related to PMIR performance as correlates of latent inhibition (LI) and lability respectively. 32 participants completed Goldberg’s (1999) measure of Openness to Experience, Holt’s (2002) Creative Cognition Inventory and Luke, et al.’s (2003) long-form QBL. All then completed the contingent version of the covert precognition task used in Study 1. Overall, participants again selected significantly more target images then mean chance expectation (t[31] = 2.01, p = .03). We did not replicate the correlations between performance and the Chance and Providence subscales of the QBL, nor with creativity measures, but there was a significant positive correlation with openness to experience, as predicted (r = .46, p = .01). Suggestions are given for further research utilizing this task, particularly in testing the assumption that the psi element need be covert.

AB - This paper describes two studies that were intended to replicate and extend the findings of Luke, Delanoy and Sherwood (2008), who were able to demonstrate a precognition effect using a covert task with contingent reward or punishment. Performance in their study was related to measures of belief in luck that could be considered to be related to experience of PMIR ‘in the field’. In Study 1, 25 participants completed the short-form Questionnaire of Beliefs about Luck (QBL: Luke, Delanoy & Sherwood, 2003) and a 10-trial preliminary preferences task that required them to select which of four fractal images they found most pleasant. In fact this was a precognition task and based on performance participants in the contingent condition subsequently either completed a pleasant task, involving rating cartoons for humorousness, or an unpleasant task, monitoring sequences of digits. Participants in the nocontingent condition completed neither. Overall, participants selected significantly more target images then mean chance expectation (t[24] = 2.60, p = .02), but there was no difference between the contingent and nocontingent conditions (t[23] = .73, p = .47). Performance was positively correlated with the Chance and Providence subscales of the QBL (r = .48, p = .02, and r =.39, p = .05 respectively) In Study 2, we added measures of openness to experience and creativity that we hypothesized to be related to PMIR performance as correlates of latent inhibition (LI) and lability respectively. 32 participants completed Goldberg’s (1999) measure of Openness to Experience, Holt’s (2002) Creative Cognition Inventory and Luke, et al.’s (2003) long-form QBL. All then completed the contingent version of the covert precognition task used in Study 1. Overall, participants again selected significantly more target images then mean chance expectation (t[31] = 2.01, p = .03). We did not replicate the correlations between performance and the Chance and Providence subscales of the QBL, nor with creativity measures, but there was a significant positive correlation with openness to experience, as predicted (r = .46, p = .01). Suggestions are given for further research utilizing this task, particularly in testing the assumption that the psi element need be covert.

KW - Parapsychology

KW - Psychology

KW - Precognition

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 123

EP - 135

BT - Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention & The Incorporated Society for Psychical Research 32nd Annual Conference

A2 - Sherwood, Simon

PB - Parapsychological Association

CY - Winchester

ER -

Luke DP, Roe CA, Davison J. Testing for forced-choice precognition using a hidden task: two replications. In Sherwood S, editor, Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 51st Annual Convention & The Incorporated Society for Psychical Research 32nd Annual Conference. Winchester: Parapsychological Association. 2012. p. 123-135